Trump 2.0 What Donald Trump’s return would mean for Australia and the world

Introduction

Hervé Lemahieu
Director of Research

For all the excitement of the US presidential race, the biggest upheaval will be the global policy implications if Donald Trump is re‑elected.

On 5 November, Americans will go to the polls to elect their next president.

The choice is between Donald Trump, running for a second, non-consecutive term at the helm of a Republican Party moulded firmly in his image, and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, whose surprise elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket has re-energised her party.

President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the contest has rebalanced the race for the moment. But the political landscape remains volatile.

Of two things we can be fairly certain. Trump is better positioned for a knife-edge victory now than he was ahead of his shock win as a political outsider in 2016. Second, compared to a Harris victory, a return of Trump to the White House portends far greater disruption to the global role of the United States.

Against that background, Lowy Institute scholars have set their minds to imagining a second Trump presidency, and what that would mean for American statecraft, Australia, and the world.

The Institute has no house position on Donald Trump. The authors of these essays write in their own names. Their assessments vary depending on the region and issues they cover. Some believe Trump would be less restrained a second time round. Others remain sanguine about his bluster and unpredictability.

But all agree the world has changed since January 2021 when Trump was last in power, and the stakes are higher.

The Russian threat has returned to Europe, the conflict in Gaza threatens to escalate into a wider Middle East war, China is inching closer to realising a post-American order in Asia, and it is making hay globally by claiming leadership of the disparate but increasingly influential Global South.

Whether the United States continues to champion allies, values, and norms under a re-elected Donald Trump has never been more consequential for friends and foes alike.