The return of Donald Trump to the White House has upended geopolitics with his unpredictable, transactional, and often chaotic approach to foreign policy. But he has not changed Xi Jinping's policy calculations. Rather, he has solidified them and created openings for Xi to drive a wedge into US alliances. Xi remains committed to turning China into a prosperous, high-tech superpower that will be able not just to challenge the United States, but to surpass it in many areas.
Key findings
- Xi Jinping’s more assertive foreign policy is built on a foundation of growing economic size and military clout. Xi has been able to pursue the Chinese Communist Party’s longstanding aims more aggressively because he has the economic, military, and diplomatic tools to do so.
- The many arms of the party-state also push China’s interests abroad. This includes the party’s own foreign policy arm, multi-lingual state media outlets, state-owned companies, and United Front operations largely aimed at overseas Chinese.
- Xi has elevated national security to the core of the party-state’s domestic and foreign policy apparatus. He established China’s first National Security Commission in early 2014, whose staffing and operations remain highly opaque. Xi’s notion of “comprehensive national security” covers both internal and external security.
