China and the Rules-based orderRBO

China and the Rules‑Based Order

Seven experts debate China’s approach to the rules‑based international order


Introduction: Ben Scott

China’s growing economic and military power has prompted urgent questions about its approach to the rules-based international order, which can be loosely defined as a shared commitment to conduct international affairs in accordance with laws, principles and practices embodied in institutions such as the United Nations, regional security arrangements, trade agreements and multilateral financial institutions. On the one hand, China could be expected to have a stake in maintaining the existing order which, after all, has provided the stability necessary for the country’s rise. On the other hand, it cannot be assumed that China supports all elements of the current order, which Beijing claims it had no hand in creating. Read more 

Key components of the rules-based order were established by the United States, as the dominant power after the Second World War. Hopes that China would peacefully integrate into the existing order were boosted when China acceded to the World Trade Organization in 2001. But a much stronger China, led by President Xi Jinping since 2013, has shown increased willingness to disregard international norms, most notably in the South China Sea.

To interpret and explain these issues, we asked a select group of experts about Beijing’s goals for the international order; the changes it seeks and what compromises China might agree to, especially with the United States.

This Lowy Institute feature presents the experts’ responses to these questions and their reactions to one another’s arguments. Collapse 

Debate Threads

Select an argument or response to see how the debates thread together.

Arguments

John Culver

Counting on historical forces

Above all, China’s leaders seek legitimacy and acceptance of an authoritarian political system that provides security, stability, and development.

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Elizabeth Economy

An order aligned with Chinese values

[Xi Jinping’s initiatives] all speak in one form or another to his desire to transform the rules‑based order.

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Tanner Greer

The challenge of ideological insecurities

[Chinese leaders see] the nefarious hand of an enemy who has learned to weaponise values [to] overthrow regimes.

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David Kelly

Back to 'hide and bide'?

By hiding and biding, China can oppose the United States and avoid bidding to undertake the hegemon’s responsibilities.

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Nadège Rolland

An à la carte strategy

The goal is not necessarily to fundamentally restructure the existing institutions, but for them to serve China’s interests.

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Daniel Tobin

Rewiring the global order

Rejuvenation requires not simply that Beijing be left alone, but that the party’s governance achievements be actively lauded by the globe.

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Wu Xinbo

Can Washington compromise?

China is not going to overturn the current order or create a new one, but it will drive the order’s evolution.

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Responses

John Culver

Xi Jinping's China may not last forever

The CCP now seems convinced that its ideological prognostications are correct, incentivising it to push forward.

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Elizabeth Economy

The United States must get it right at home

Negotiations could begin around issues that do not touch explicitly on China’s core values.

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Tanner Greer

An ideological disarmament agreement?

Values and ideology [are] the most intractable sources of conflict between the two powers.

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David Kelly

Looking for a draw

Not appeals to the better angels of each other's nature, but a least-worst strategy that aims for a chess-like draw.

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Nadège Rolland

Compromise or coexistence?

What is left, then, is not compromise but a balance of power.

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Daniel Tobin

Rivalry is unavoidable; confrontation isn’t

Rivalry, however, is not the same as confrontation, and need not lead to conflict.

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Wu Xinbo

Can Washington call the shots?

When pondering the emerging world order, [the US] should adopt a healthy dose of humility and open-mindedness.

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This debate is part of the Lowy Institute's ‘Australia’s Security and the Rules-Based Order Project’ and is supported by the Department of Defence’s Strategic Policy Grants Program.
Introduction & Editing
Ben Scott