Figure 8: Unleashing versus sustaining productivity growth
China % TFP growth, 5 year moving average vs smoothed trend
0
2
4
6
8
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1.56
2.8
2.8
2.6
4.09
5.19
6.03
6.75
6.65
4.19
2.34
2.58
3.28
4.23
6.08
7.17
6.81
5.12
3.25
2.1
1.72
1.56
1.74
2.16
2.3
2.46
2.86
3.43
3.09
3.08
2.97
2.37
1.24
1.07
0.89
0.66
0.72
1.16
1.5
1.68
3.16
3.62
4.07
4.45
4.72
4.85
4.87
4.82
4.75
4.7
4.7
4.73
4.71
4.57
4.3
3.95
3.58
3.23
2.95
2.75
2.63
2.57
2.55
2.54
2.53
2.51
2.44
2.32
2.15
1.96
1.76
1.58
1.43
1.33
1.28
1.26
1.26
1.27
1.27
1.27
Reform & opening
(1978)
Deng’s Southern Tour
(1992)
WTO entry
(2001)
Xi era begins
(2013)
Reform and
opening (1978)
Deng's Southern
Tour (1992)
WTO entry
(2001)
Xi era begins
(2013)
5-yr moving average
Smoothed trend
Source:
authors’ estimates, using baseline growth accounting model (see appendix)