Figure 1: Revising down the rise of China
China's projected GDP relative to US, nominal USD
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2000.0
2001.0
2002.0
2003.0
2004.0
2005.0
2006.0
2007.0
2008.0
2009.0
2010.0
2011.0
2012.0
2013.0
2014.0
2015.0
2016.0
2017.0
2018.0
2019.0
2020.0
2021.0
2022.0
2023.0
2024.0
2025.0
2026.0
2027.0
2028.0
2029.0
2030.0
2031.0
2032.0
2033.0
2034.0
2035.0
2036.0
2037.0
2038.0
2039.0
2040.0
2041.0
2042.0
2043.0
2044.0
2045.0
2046.0
2047.0
2048.0
2049.0
2050.0
74.0
74.0
77.0
81.0
85.0
89.0
94.0
99.0
104.0
109.0
114.0
118.0
123.0
128.0
134.0
139.0
145.0
150.0
156.0
163.0
168.0
174.0
180.0
187.0
193.0
200.0
208.0
215.0
223.0
231.0
74.0
74.0
77.0
81.0
85.0
88.0
92.0
95.0
98.0
101.0
103.0
104.0
106.0
107.0
108.0
109.0
110.0
111.0
112.0
113.0
113.0
114.0
114.0
114.0
115.0
115.0
115.0
115.0
115.0
115.0
12.0
13.0
13.0
14.0
16.0
25.0
31.0
35.0
40.0
48.0
53.0
60.0
63.0
67.0
67.0
71.0
74.0
China with 5% growth
Our baseline projection
Source:
authors' projections, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2021, and OECD Long-Term Growth Forecasts (2018)