Figure 2

Estimated impact of Australia’s SSN force and AUKUS

Total allied numbers of operational SSNs/SSGNs in the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean in the first 14 days of a major crisis in the Western Pacific

Crisis periodEstimate2024202820352050
Day 1Total numbers of allied SSNs/SSGNs in Western Pacific and Indian Ocean812-1312-1319-20
% increase in operational allied SSNs/SSGNs in Western Pacific and Indian Ocean as a result of RAN SSNs0%0%18-20%42-46%
% increase in operational allied SSNs/SSGNs in Western Pacific and Indian Ocean as a result of AUKUS0%50-62%100-116%137-150%
Day 5Total numbers of allied SSNs/SSGNs in Western Pacific and Indian Ocean812-1312-1319-20
% increase in operational allied SSNs/SSGNs in Western Pacific and Indian Ocean as a result of RAN SSNs0%0%18-20%38-42%
% increase in operational allied SSNs/SSGNs in Western Pacific and Indian Ocean as a result of AUKUS0%50-62%100-116%137-150%
Day 14Total numbers of allied SSNs/SSGNs in Western Pacific and Indian Ocean2828-2928-2937-38
% increase in operational allied SSNs/SSGNs in Western Pacific and Indian Ocean as a result of RAN SSNs0%0%7-8%18-19%
% increase in operational allied SSNs/SSGNs in Western Pacific and Indian Ocean as a result of AUKUS0%16-20%27-32%42-46%
Day 1 impact
Day 5 impact
Day 14 impact

Author’s calculations; see endnotes 44 and 49

SSN: nuclear-powered general-purpose attack submarine; SSGN: nuclear-powered guided (cruise) missile submarine; RAN: Royal Australian Navy